"A sustained $10 increase in oil prices is expected to increase inflation by 0.4% and lower GDP by 0.4%": Apollo Global Management 's ( APO -4.34%) chief economist Torston Slok says oil is fueling U.S. stagflation fears, adding to the effect expected from import tariffs.

A sustained surge in oil prices is likely to complicate the U.S. fight against inflation. A $10-a-barrel increase would boost year-over-year growth in the Consumer Price Index by 0.5 percentage points,

NEW YORK (AP) — Some calm is returning to Wall Street, and U.S. stocks are rising on Monday, while oil prices are giving back some of their initial spurts following Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear and military targets at the end of last week.

A sustained rise in the price of crude oil, which jumped sharply after Israel attacked Iran, could hurt consumers and President Trump’s efforts to bring down energy costs.

Although the U.S. is a net oil exporter, higher oil prices could increase inflation and lower economic growth.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady next week, with investors focused on new central bank projections that will show how much weight policymakers are putting on recent soft data and how much risk they attach to unresolved trade and budget issues and an intensifying conflict in the Middle East.

Keep an eye out for signs of labor-market weakness, as well as the risk that rising oil prices could put more upward pressure on inflation.