Tropical storm Erin is roughly a thousand miles East of the Caribbean islands. Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

The National Hurricane Center's prediction cone shows a westward trajectory, but doesn't paint a clear picture whether or not it's likely to impact the east coast of the United States. Spaghetti models, which represent a collection of predicted paths generated by multiple computer models, paint a more definitive picture as of Wednesday morning.