Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...

The stock market is an ever-changing place. In fact, it’s changing every second of every day as prices go up and down, and new factors impact the trajectory of the market. It’s important for investors ...

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American I’m not sure when I first heard of Bayes’ ...

We consider the asymptotic behaviour of the marginal maximum likelihood empirical Bayes posterior distribution in general setting. First, we characterize the set where the maximum marginal likelihood ...

Daniel McNulty began writing for Investopedia in 2012. His work includes articles on financial analysis, asset allocation, and trading strategies. Marguerita is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), ...

Mike Lee receives relevant research funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australia-Pacific Science Foundation, and Flinders University. Benedict King receives funding from the Australian ...

In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined. ~ Nate Silver If the ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...