Prediction markets are having a moment. But what are they actually good for? Economist Robin Hanson has been thinking about this for decades. Long before betting markets went mainstream, he argued ...

In a world where trust in information is breaking down, prediction markets offer a model for truth discovery backed by capital, not opinion. Beyond their early traction in sports, we believe ...

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have soared in popularity over the past few months. From bets on disease outbreaks to wagers about artificial intelligence, many of their markets ...