Mark M. Spiegel, senior policy adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of February 26, 2026.

AI adoption and use are still evolving, and the technology itself is changing rapidly. What we know about AI and its impact ...

The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New ...

This paper examines the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) patent rates (i.e., the number of AI patents/number of firms of the same type) and concentration metrics (i.e., the ...

The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles. The index is described in Buckman, Shapiro, Sudhof, and ...

PCE Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services provides monthly updates on price changes for the broad categories of goods and services that U.S. households consume, as measured by personal ...

The weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator (LMSI) tracks state-level labor market developments in real time to better understand labor market conditions as they evolve. The measure is built from weekly ...

Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation updates data on the contributions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation from supply-driven versus demand-driven components. This tool is intended ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. Treasury Yield Skewness is a daily indicator measuring the risks to the future outlook for interest rates, based on prices of Treasury ...

Monetary policy is often regarded as having only temporary effects on the economy, moderating the expansions and contractions that make up the business cycle. However, it is possible for monetary ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...